I have been arguing in these columns for a while now that an Autumn Election is unlikely because of events and political conditions in Scotland.

Alex Salmond, who has the Scottish Salami firmly gripped and is slicing at it furiously, is still in the first flush of his administration and, because many of his party’s ideas are seen as fresh and a break with a past dominated by the monolith of Scottish Labour, one is not surprised to discover that a poll in the Scottish Daily Mail puts the SNP on 48%, Labour on 33, The LibDems and the Tories on 8% apiece. If replicated at a general election, that might mean, according to Electoral Calculus, no Tories or LibDems, but 49 SNP MPs and only 10 Labour ones.

It does not need too much thought to realise the implications of that for the overall mathematics at Westminster. Macavity would be further humiliated in his own personal fiefdom and have to face up to the total loss of control of Scotland. If the race in England and Wales was to be pretty tight, this could well mean the difference between victory and defeat. Scotland is his power base and he cannot afford to lose it, not least because he could no longer rely on the Scots Cannon Fodder to troop through the lobbies for him.

Facing a situation akin to that of the 19th. Century and the Irish Nationalists, he might also face being unable to look to the LibDems for succour if they were to be squeezed to almost nothing in England and he had to form a weak minority government from which his political friends had largely been eliminated. Labour would find his loss of Scotland hard to take and he might find his formerly supportive English MPs becoming restless. The West Lothian Question would come into sharper relief as SNP MPs abstain in their hordes and ten lonely Labour MPs continue to file into the lobbies on matters that concern them not. This is nightmare country for GB.

Meanwhile Alex Salmond continues to ride high in the polls and will only be hoiked off the top when he and his ministers start to find the wheels coming off their various policies.

So, to those who have been warning us of a snap election, look to the money and look to Scotland.

UPDATE: The Poll was conducted by Progressive Scottish Opinion. Only 31% support Independence, which will irritate the Salami Slicer no end (wait for lots of whining about ‘how the question is asked’).

The area most in favour of Independence is Fife. Macavity is MP for Kirkcaldy & Cowdenbeath, a Fife Constituency. That will make him happy.

Least support for Independence comes from Lothian & Borders on 30%: doubtless fears over their economy in the event of Independence is coming into play.

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