The Scotsman (here) makes two good points about the possibility of an autumn election which make sense:

“One source pointed out that Douglas Alexander, the International Development Secretary and Labour’s election supremo, would not be on holiday now if an election was expected in two-and-a-half months’ time.

In Scotland, the [Labour] party is facing even bigger hurdles in trying to muster enthusiasm among activists demoralised by the loss of the Holyrood election. Insiders believe Labour MSPs, particularly those who served as ministers, are struggling with life in opposition and have failed to generate big policy ideas.”

Given that Labour received such a drubbing in the Scottish Parliamentary elections and lost power as a result, their lack of morale is to be understood. In addition they are likely to ditch their Leader, Jack McConnell, and so will have to go through the ructions of a Leadership Contest. As these things tend to be done rather bloodily in North Britain there is every risk of a highly divisive contest undermining Labour’s position in Scotland yet further, something which Macavity will be desperate to avoid, given how much he and the Scots Junta depend on Scots MPs to dominate England. In addition the war chests will be somewhat empty after the vruisng may elections.

Another interesting feature of Scottish politics is the extraordinary plunge in LibDem poll support which is now said to be down to 4% (see here) in Scotland, most of it going off to the SNP who are enjoying a prolonged honeymoon. A surge of support for the Nats also threatens a demoralised Scottish Labour party which is why we almost certainly will not have an autumn election.

The fact that Douglas Alexander, a senior member of the Scots Junta, has gone off on his holidays also militates against an autumn election.

The spring, however, is still a real possibility.

Doubtless we shall all be confounded in due course, for examining the entrails of a recently slaughtered cockerel is no more reliable now than it was in Roman times.

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